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NFL Sports Betting – The Off-Season

In this article we are going to talk about Sports Betting on the NFL in 2019 and how we can find instant value in the middle of the off-season.

With the NFL draft complete, 254 athletes from across the country will say good-bye to their friends and family and spend the next 4 months focusing on becoming the absolute best they can be.

Every year rookie players enter the league and shift the fate of sinking franchises, giving hope to fan bases across the world. This year will be no different.

If you are anything like me then you have already scoured Youtube looking for your favorite teams newest rookies highlight reels and post draft interviews.

Now it’s time to focus up and get a head start on figuring out who is going to make us the most money in the 2019 NFL Season!

In this article I will talk about some of the NFL worst teams, best teams, and most importantly where we can find the easiest NFL off-season play right now!

Let’s start with the Obvious:

The Cardinals have added a lot of talent to this roster. With the first overall pick they selected Kyler Murray and he will head to Arizona and join new head coach, Kliff Kingsbury. Fun fact, Kliff has been trying to get Kyler Murray to be his quarterback since he was in highschool.

“Me and him have had a relationship since I was like 15 years old. This is something we’ve talked about for a long time. It’s been a long time coming. God works in mysterious ways. For me to be playing for him now is a surreal feeling.” – Kyler Murray

Image result for kyler and kliff

It looks like Kliff finally got his boy, but I don’t think this roster is going to be playoff bound just yet. Keep in mind they play the Seahawks, Rams and the secretly good 49ers twice a year.

I like the Cardinals against teams that have weak defenses, but I definitely do not expect this team to win any shootouts. Kyler will add serious dimensions to this offense and David Johnson is a very good running back,  but overall Cardinals lack star power and strength up front.

A quick peak into the Cardinals schedule shows favorable match ups with the Giants, Bengals, Falcons, and Buccaneers. Time will tell but Arizona is only looking at about 5-6 wins this year max.

Quick Notes:

The 2 worst teams in the NFL (and it’s not even close) will be the Miami Dolphins and the New York Giants. Miami has so little talent on this current roster that it traded last years quarterback and are in full blown rebuild mode.

The Giants continue to keep Eli Manning  at quarterback and honestly it makes me happy and I’ll tell you why. The Giants are predictable, they have a bad defense (that just got worst) and will be forced to feed star running back Saquon Barkley if they hope to have any sort of offense. If you ask the Giants to put up any more than two and half touchdowns, you’re going to be asking for a lot.

Fantasy Football Note: Avoid Saquon in the 1st round, Giants will not be scoring alot of points this year. Don’t believe me? Just look at David Johnson production in 2018. David was a bona fide first rounder and only scored 138 points. Listen I am not saying Saquon will be a bust, I am saying that you can get better value looking at guys like Kamara, McCaff and Elliot.

Not So Obvious:

Mark my words the 49ers are going to be playoff contender in 2019. Kyle Shanahan is the best offensive mind in the NFL (better than the Rams Sean McVay) and they have been pouring resources into improving this defense. They get good looking Jimmy G back at quarterback, combined with the fact that Kyle can scheme anyone and everyone open – pencil them in – BREAKOUT TEAM OF THE YEAR.

My 2 faults with the 49ers are:

1. Their defense will improve but still not near elite. Richard Sherman is old and the overall talent of the defensive backs isn’t that scary.

2. They do not have top tier weapons compared to their rivals down south with Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.

But that is why they are going to be breakout team of the year.

Over Bets: As a general note I expect the 49ers to score a lot this year and with their secondary still in rebuild mode I also expect for them to get scored on. So in conclusion, look at the over for the 49ers to be a profitable play most weeks.

Top Tier Teams

The Saints and Cowboys don’t have very many holes in their rosters. Cowboys are big upfront, big on defense, and the growth from Dak Prescott has been extrodinary. Cowboys are scary and I am absolutely unloading on Cowboys Week 1 vs the NY Giants.

I have the Saints penciled in as 2019 World Champs. This team has made the NFC Championship game back to back years and if not for the Minneapolis Miracle and Infamous No Call I think way more people would be on the Who Dat bang wagon.

As of writing the Saints are 11/1 odds to win the SB.

Where Can We Make Money?

The easiest bet you can make today is New England Patriots to win the AFC East. As of writing they pay 1/5 odds so that means every dollar gets you .20 cents back. Obviously the return on investment is limited but this is what I would call one of your safe money bets.

The other 3 teams in the AFC East are the Dolphins (mentioned earlier) the Bills (second year of rebuild mode) and the New York Jets (second year of rebuild mode + Leveon Bell). The scariest of the 3 being the Jets who added multiple pieces through the draft and free agency process. In case you did not know Adam Gase is the new head coach of the Jets and he is hell bent on dethroning the Patriots. Sorry Adam not this year, but soon…

Image result for adam gase

Takeaways:

Before I get to the conclusion, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t tell you that you can buy our expert picks and take the guess work out of Sports Betting.

Seriously are you one of the millions of people that bet on sports for profit and never seem to make any profit?

Our daily package starts at $97.50 and is a guaranteed winner or you get your money back! That is how positive we are.

If that wasn’t enough, if you buy any package you get our limited edition Steele Vegas Insulated Mug and T-Shirt completely free!

That is right just for being part of the team we’re going to send you free swag. But remember this is a limited time offer, you have to go right now!

In conclusion the draft is over and football doesn’t start for another 4 months but the only way you stay ahead in this game is keeping up to date.

The Takeaways:

  • Cardinals stock is trending up, but up from the bottom isn’t very high.
  • Miami Dolphins and the New York Giants flat out suck.
  • The 49ers will be playoff bound in 2019 and betting the over in every game looks appealing.
  • Saints and Cowboys are the NFL’s most complete teams.
  • I penciled in the Saints for 2019 World Champs
  • Easiest LOCK OF THE CENTURY is Patriots winning AFC East for the 10 year in a row and for the 15/16 times.

 

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Steele Vegas – An AFC Story

a Tale as old as time

The more things change, the more they stay the same. 

Tom Brady enters his 19th season and takes the Patriots to their 8th consecutive AFC Championship Game. 

*Now Enter, Patrick Mahomes*

 

Patrick Mahomes

AFC SHOWDOWN

Patriots (+3) @

Chiefs (-3)

"ARCTIC BLAST"

An Arctic Blast is settling over Kansas City, and this could be the coldest game ever recorded in the Super Bowl Era. Over Under is currently sitting at 57.5

Team Stats

Which player will have the biggest impact?

Every one of our team members is devoted to delivering the finest possible designs.

Tom Fucking Brady

Patrick the Cannon Mahomes

James Happy Feet White

Tyreek The Cheetah Hill

Trusted by the best

Week 13 FREE PICK

 

NFL Week 13 Game Insight (Rams @ Lions)

Kyle Smith       December 1, 2018    11:25 AM

 

Welcome to the month of December fellow peers. The month where playoff dreams are either fulfilled or destroyed. In this game we have a LA Rams team looking to continue their strong season in hopes to earn the first seed in the NFC, providing them with a handy first round bye and home advantage for the playoffs. While the Lions playoff hopes are unfortunately being flushed down the toilet as we speak.

            First let’s get into injuries as they play a key role in our decision for this underwhelming battle. The Lions will be without star rookie running back Kerryon Johnson. As well as wider receiver Marvin Jones Jr, who was put on Injured Reserve recently. That leaves the Lions with Kenny Golladay and Theo Riddick as their top offensive weapons. While the Rams are coming off of a bye week and are COMPLETEY HEALTHY. They are even expecting all pro cornerback Aqib Talib to finally make his return to the field after being on Injured Reserve most of the season.

            The Rams coming off of a bye week is a huge factor when deciding if the Rams are in position to cover the -10 spread they have been given. Last year (Sean Mcvay’s first year as Head Coach) the Rams came off of their bye week and absolutely steam rolled a giants team at MetLife stadium, winning the game 51-17. A giants team that was also plagued with injuries and enduring another rough season, much like the Lions. So far this season when the Rams have played subpar teams they have won by an average of 27 points… those teams including Raiders, Cardinals, and 49ers. It seems when the Rams have a chance to play weak teams, they take advantage of the matchups and don’t let up. Something we will need to continue to see come this Sunday.

            In terms of player matchups, the Rams win in almost every matchup. The Rams have the secondary to control a weak receiving core and a front 7 that should be able to handle the Lions rushing attack led by punishing running back Legarrette Blount. The Rams offense, armed with weapons including Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Todd Gurley, should have a field day against one of the at best average defenses in the league. I look for the Rams to pound the ball consistently and attack Lions cornerback Nevin Lawson when throwing the ball. This would help avoid the one playmaker the Lions defense have, in cornerback Darius Slay.

            Extra Stats :

·        Rams are averaging 35 ppg while Lions are averaging a underwhelming 21 points

·        In Todd Gurley’s 2 matchups against the Lions he combined for 244 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns

·        Lions rank 20th in the league in sacks allowed

·        Ndamukong Suh will be returning to Detroit and facing his ex QB Matt Stafford who has been having a poor season, while Suh has been BALLING

Game Prediction: RAMS WIN 36-17

For more game insights and picks feel free to check out our available subscriptions. Go ahead and become part of our team for as little as $24.99! We love to bring in new members to our community and providing them with LOCKS throughout each week to help them CASH OUT and beat the books.

 

 

 

Week 13 NFL @ Steele Vegas

It’s that time of year folks, and no I’m not talking about Christmas trees, reindeer’s,ornaments, stockings, or even turkeys! I’m talking about a classic Lawrence Round Robin baby!With the first real sign of winter approaching it is only appropriate to throw down three smooth parlays. While most people associate the winter with shoveling, gloves, coats, boots, a shit ton of snow, and the army of the dead: I associate winter with sitting home all day drinking hot chocolate, ignoring family and friends to watch great football games, and most importantly,making sweet green cash on a beautiful VALUE ROUND ROBIN. Yes, I know what you’rethinking, why couldn’t you just say you had a great round robin? What’s with the opening dialogue longer than a Colbert rant on Trump? Well, I’m simply rambling because this bet has me in a great mood, and it should you as well!

Without further ado I will get on with the triple-two-team parlay. ROUND ROBIN: Jets +8 @ Titans (-115) AND Falcons -1 @ Ravens (-110)AND Broncos -5 @ Bengals (-115).I usually avoid parlays but these really caught my eye.

This is a bet with such a great value that even if the Jets lose by 20 and the Falcons lose by 30 I’d still be glad throwing $200 on this triple pick in hindsight. That is what I like to call a true value play and while it is important that these plays land, it is more important that you truly feel the value is worth while regardless. If you can find bets like that where the price is simply too good for the odds then throw down money EVERY SINGLE TIME and you will be in the positive, it’s SIMPLY that SIMPLE. The beauty behind this parlay is that if you bet $100 on it you will walk away with a NET GAIN of $254.43. Oh yes of course I included the change, there is a gumdrop with your name on it! I will explain why I give this bet a 60% chance of hitting in a little bit but first I want to talk money.

I normally recommend putting 5% of your portfolio (or $100 if you have less than$1,000 in your account) in a single favorite bet. That means entrusting 5% of your portfolio in abet that Vegas deems is likely to cash, meaning not an underdog play. So if you’re loving Brady and think the Pats will wipe the floor with the vikings this week in Gillette than great! Throw down 5% of your portfolio in a Pats cover with odds of about -105. Now, for bets with greater rewards, according to Vegas, like Parlays, round robins, or underdog lines, throw down LESS than 5%. There is no real strategical reason to risk more than 3% on a risky play when you can win consistently. There are rare exceptions where I actually RECOMMEND putting 5% of your portfolio into a parlay but ONLY when I strongly disagree with Vegas’ odds. Since I give this play a 60% likelihood of hitting I encourage you to spend up to 5% of your portfolio on it! The rewards are simply to good here. This parlay gives me a very real (over 50%) opportunity attacking $1 and walking away with $3.52, and that’s an opportunity I don’t want to miss.

When these parlays hit I don’t want to be the only one laughing in the face of Vegas, so join me and let’s make this amazing bet together on Sunday!The Jets are coming off an embarrassing loss against the Patriots and as we all know the Titans offense is connecting lately so why are the Jets a good lock here? Well, as it turns out, the loss wasn’t nearly as embarrassing as it appears at first glance. Brady played almost up to his normal standard and the Pats had Gronk healthy once again. This Pats offense is the best in the NFL and the defense is strongly underrated. Crowell looked like a beast against a versatile run defense in Flowers and Brown. The Pats defense has allowed the 14th least amount of yards to running backs this season but are most likely a top ten rush stopping defense. With Crowell managing an impressive five yards per carry. He was only able to wrack up 30 rushing yards (and McGuire 19 on 6 attempts) due to the Jets being behind by two possessions. The Jets defense will most likely be able to hold the Titans to a reasonable score,allowing for their rushing game to open up and opening the option for McCown to go over the middle and abuse the Titans not-so-scary secondary. This game will not be a two possession game so take the generous points Vegas is giving you.

Now it’s time to take a trip to The Mercedes Benz Stadium where the Falcons are hosting the Ravens. A one point favorite for Atlanta…come on! In today’s economy that is a hand out. Be quiet and take the money. This play is the base of the round robin and is what makes it such a great value play. Yes the Ravens defense is a challenge and Lamar Jackson has been solid but they are still definite underdogs against a solid Falcons team. The Falcons are on a three game losing streak and they look to turn that around on Sunday. The reason this line is so high is because experts are overreacting to Lamar Jackson. Brad Evans from Yahoo Sports claims he will remind Falcon fans of Michael Vick. Lamar Jackson is far from Michael Vick, in fact, honestly, he’s far from Matt Ryan. He had 150 passing yards and an interception when he played the worst pass defense in the NFL in a Bengals team. Then he played adecent Oakland defense and threw for 178 with a TD and two interceptions. These turnovers will be costly against a Falcons defense. He is very good at sneaking but it won’t be enough to keep up with a strong Falcons team desperate for a win at home.

Broncos are 5 point favorites against the Bengals in Cincy. This game should have more of a 9 to 13 spread. Keenum looked terrific last week against a fabulous Steelers defense. This Broncos team is truly hungry, an example is when they blocked the Steelers opening field goal. The Denver defense should have better luck generating stops on the Bengals than the Bengals will on them. While the Bengals do have Green returning, he will be their only hope with Driskel starting at QB. The Denver secondary is looking to have a better performance after Juju annihilated them last week. The Bengals have less offensive weapons at every position and no defense to support them, so let’s utilize an underrated middle of the pack QB verse a second or third string QB. Let’s take the single digit spread here.I hope this analysis finds you well and you are able to enjoy these games on Sunday.We were able to exploit some weaknesses and I’m really feeling good about this round robin.

If you have any questions, concerns, or comments please reach out and I will be happy to answer. Lastly, I just want to say, check out the Steele Vegas store if you are not already a customer. For more of me and my colleagues’ picks subscribe to a plan and we will email you what great plays to make, every single week. I have the pleasure of working with Sean Steele the legend himself and Kyle Smith. 

WON $700 LAST WEEK! WANT TO MISS THAT AGAIN THIS WEEK?

The Brad Lawrence

NFL and Esport Expert

Steele Vegas

How To Use the NHL Safe System

What Is The NHL Safe System?

The main premise the Chase System exists under is that it is improbable to lose 5 bets in a row.  It is even more improbable to lose 6 or 7 bets in a row.  And it is darn near impossible to lose 8 bets in a row

Imagine flipping a coin.  How many times in a row do you think you’ll flip heads?  You would have to be extremely unlucky to flip the same side 5 times in a row. 

Procedures

1) Calculate your unit price and place a bet. 

2) If you win, then great!  Nice job!  Recalculate your unit price and place another bet.

          If you lose, then it’s okay.  Your next bet will win that unit yet.  Add your unit price to the money you just lost ($1 unit price + $1.10 you just lost).  For your next bet, you will set it to win this amount. 

         If you lose again, then repeat the same procedure of adding your unit price to the total amount you have lost during the current losing streak ($1 unit price + $1.10 lost 1st bet + $2.31 lost 2nd bet = $4.41).  Your next bet will attempt to win the sum of your losses plus one unit price.

          Keep repeating this process until you win a bet.  Like mentioned before, there is very little chance of losing so many in a row, especially if you stay knowledgeable about the sport and its teams.

         We use this system as a safe money system. This way we decrease our overall risk. If you risk $1000 every single week but use this system to safely ensure $300 then your worst case scenario you only lose $700. It is the equivalent to a CD or a Bond issued from the bank. The process is slower but is much safer.