It’s that time of year folks, and no I’m not talking about Christmas trees, reindeer’s,ornaments, stockings, or even turkeys! I’m talking about a classic Lawrence Round Robin baby!With the first real sign of winter approaching it is only appropriate to throw down three smooth parlays. While most people associate the winter with shoveling, gloves, coats, boots, a shit ton of snow, and the army of the dead: I associate winter with sitting home all day drinking hot chocolate, ignoring family and friends to watch great football games, and most importantly,making sweet green cash on a beautiful VALUE ROUND ROBIN. Yes, I know what you’rethinking, why couldn’t you just say you had a great round robin? What’s with the opening dialogue longer than a Colbert rant on Trump? Well, I’m simply rambling because this bet has me in a great mood, and it should you as well!
Without further ado I will get on with the triple-two-team parlay. ROUND ROBIN: Jets +8 @ Titans (-115) AND Falcons -1 @ Ravens (-110)AND Broncos -5 @ Bengals (-115).I usually avoid parlays but these really caught my eye.
This is a bet with such a great value that even if the Jets lose by 20 and the Falcons lose by 30 I’d still be glad throwing $200 on this triple pick in hindsight. That is what I like to call a true value play and while it is important that these plays land, it is more important that you truly feel the value is worth while regardless. If you can find bets like that where the price is simply too good for the odds then throw down money EVERY SINGLE TIME and you will be in the positive, it’s SIMPLY that SIMPLE. The beauty behind this parlay is that if you bet $100 on it you will walk away with a NET GAIN of $254.43. Oh yes of course I included the change, there is a gumdrop with your name on it! I will explain why I give this bet a 60% chance of hitting in a little bit but first I want to talk money.
I normally recommend putting 5% of your portfolio (or $100 if you have less than$1,000 in your account) in a single favorite bet. That means entrusting 5% of your portfolio in abet that Vegas deems is likely to cash, meaning not an underdog play. So if you’re loving Brady and think the Pats will wipe the floor with the vikings this week in Gillette than great! Throw down 5% of your portfolio in a Pats cover with odds of about -105. Now, for bets with greater rewards, according to Vegas, like Parlays, round robins, or underdog lines, throw down LESS than 5%. There is no real strategical reason to risk more than 3% on a risky play when you can win consistently. There are rare exceptions where I actually RECOMMEND putting 5% of your portfolio into a parlay but ONLY when I strongly disagree with Vegas’ odds. Since I give this play a 60% likelihood of hitting I encourage you to spend up to 5% of your portfolio on it! The rewards are simply to good here. This parlay gives me a very real (over 50%) opportunity attacking $1 and walking away with $3.52, and that’s an opportunity I don’t want to miss.
When these parlays hit I don’t want to be the only one laughing in the face of Vegas, so join me and let’s make this amazing bet together on Sunday!The Jets are coming off an embarrassing loss against the Patriots and as we all know the Titans offense is connecting lately so why are the Jets a good lock here? Well, as it turns out, the loss wasn’t nearly as embarrassing as it appears at first glance. Brady played almost up to his normal standard and the Pats had Gronk healthy once again. This Pats offense is the best in the NFL and the defense is strongly underrated. Crowell looked like a beast against a versatile run defense in Flowers and Brown. The Pats defense has allowed the 14th least amount of yards to running backs this season but are most likely a top ten rush stopping defense. With Crowell managing an impressive five yards per carry. He was only able to wrack up 30 rushing yards (and McGuire 19 on 6 attempts) due to the Jets being behind by two possessions. The Jets defense will most likely be able to hold the Titans to a reasonable score,allowing for their rushing game to open up and opening the option for McCown to go over the middle and abuse the Titans not-so-scary secondary. This game will not be a two possession game so take the generous points Vegas is giving you.
Now it’s time to take a trip to The Mercedes Benz Stadium where the Falcons are hosting the Ravens. A one point favorite for Atlanta…come on! In today’s economy that is a hand out. Be quiet and take the money. This play is the base of the round robin and is what makes it such a great value play. Yes the Ravens defense is a challenge and Lamar Jackson has been solid but they are still definite underdogs against a solid Falcons team. The Falcons are on a three game losing streak and they look to turn that around on Sunday. The reason this line is so high is because experts are overreacting to Lamar Jackson. Brad Evans from Yahoo Sports claims he will remind Falcon fans of Michael Vick. Lamar Jackson is far from Michael Vick, in fact, honestly, he’s far from Matt Ryan. He had 150 passing yards and an interception when he played the worst pass defense in the NFL in a Bengals team. Then he played adecent Oakland defense and threw for 178 with a TD and two interceptions. These turnovers will be costly against a Falcons defense. He is very good at sneaking but it won’t be enough to keep up with a strong Falcons team desperate for a win at home.
Broncos are 5 point favorites against the Bengals in Cincy. This game should have more of a 9 to 13 spread. Keenum looked terrific last week against a fabulous Steelers defense. This Broncos team is truly hungry, an example is when they blocked the Steelers opening field goal. The Denver defense should have better luck generating stops on the Bengals than the Bengals will on them. While the Bengals do have Green returning, he will be their only hope with Driskel starting at QB. The Denver secondary is looking to have a better performance after Juju annihilated them last week. The Bengals have less offensive weapons at every position and no defense to support them, so let’s utilize an underrated middle of the pack QB verse a second or third string QB. Let’s take the single digit spread here.I hope this analysis finds you well and you are able to enjoy these games on Sunday.We were able to exploit some weaknesses and I’m really feeling good about this round robin.
If you have any questions, concerns, or comments please reach out and I will be happy to answer. Lastly, I just want to say, check out the Steele Vegas store if you are not already a customer. For more of me and my colleagues’ picks subscribe to a plan and we will email you what great plays to make, every single week. I have the pleasure of working with Sean Steele the legend himself and Kyle Smith.
WON $700 LAST WEEK! WANT TO MISS THAT AGAIN THIS WEEK?
The Brad Lawrence
NFL and Esport Expert